AHR999
AHR999 does not try to predict tomorrow. It puts today's price back onto two long-run reference points: what a fixed-sum daily buyer has paid over the last 200 days, and where a power-law fit of price against Bitcoin's age currently sits.
One indicator, two long-run reference points
It compares today's price with what a fixed-sum daily buyer has paid over the last 200
days, and with where a power-law fit of price against Bitcoin's age currently sits.
Below both, the index falls; above both, it rises. The fit this page uses is
a 5.5856, b −16.1567 — a fit, not a constant of nature.
What each boundary is worth today
| — |
Arithmetic, not entry points: “if price were here right now, the index would read this”, holding today's cost and fit fixed. Both drift daily.
Four years of readings
AHR999 history
Daily readings against the two anchors, on the same fit as the numbers above.
Four bands, not four buttons
Deeply undervalued
Below 0.45. Price is under both anchors at once. Historically rare and historically brief — which is also why so few readings sit here.
Undervalued
0.45–1.2. Price above the fit but not far from accumulated cost. The widest band, and where most days land.
Warming
1.2–5. Price is pulling away from both anchors. The index says distance, not timing.
Overvalued
Above 5. A later, widely-copied extension rather than part of the original definition.
The author defined 0.45 and 1.2 and named the regions himself. All of this is the indicator's own vocabulary — none of it is guidance from this page.
Four things it cannot do
- It assumes reversion to a power law. In a one-way market it parks in one band for months. Absence of a signal is not a signal.
- The fit is an estimate. Refit it on a different window and the reading moves; it is a model output, not a measurement.
- The cost anchor is a trailing 200-day window. It lags fast moves by design, flattering the index after a crash and penalising it after a run.
- Refits move history. The same past date can read differently depending on when the fit was made.
Live price and the 200-day cost anchor come from Coinbase Exchange, read server-side and cached 10 minutes. The history curve is a build-time snapshot of DefiLlama daily closes — a past day's reading does not change once the fit is fixed. Nothing here is investment advice. Back to the BTC terminal